Uttar Pradesh, the largest state, brought the BJP down to 240 in the last Parliamentary elections - 32 seats less than simple majority. The BJP will use its victory in the forthcoming UP assembly to legitimise all its misdeeds, and to brutally crush whatever is left of democracy in our country. On the other hand, a BJP defeat in UP will enthuse the opposition to defeat it in 2029 general elections too.
Today the Yogi government is facing multiple challenges. In the assembly election it will not only be answerable for its own misdeeds but also for the disastrous policies of the Modi government. All round failures of the Modi government regarding price rise, unemployment, overall economy, foreign policy etc. have become crystal clear.
Obviously BJP is banking on its communal agenda as it has nothing to showcase as its achievement in the elections. Muslims are being targeted and persecuted, even petty quarrels involving Muslim community members are being blown into full fledged communal clashes. Yogi's bantoge to katoge type hate speeches continue. Recently on the occasion of Eid Yogi, while warning Muslims not to perform Namaz on roads, said otherwise we know other methods to stop you. Such statements are given to frighten and threaten Muslims and thus consolidate Hindu majority. Such statements by a person holding the post of constitutional head of a state are opposed to the values of democracy and secularism. People like Akhil Bharatiya Sant Parishad chief Yati Narsinghanand often spew communal venom but never any strict action is taken against them.
It is worth remembering that in the 2014 victory of Modi, Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 played a crucial role. Then it was the SP government in UP. Around one hundred people were killed and nearly one lakh were displaced from their homes. The Akhilesh Yadav government could not efficiently stop the riots which resulted in communal polarisation all over the state. Combined with other factors BJP succeeded in securing 72 out of 80 seats. It seems once again BJP is trying for similar polarisation to gain a majority in the centre on its own. Tension around the Shahi Mosque in Sambhal continues, and in the name of Krishna Janm Bhumi communal build up is going on in Mathura. The western UP is most vulnerable in this respect as there is a sizable Muslim population in many districts.
In eastern UP many houses of the poor were demolished. On opposing such bulldozer actions many activists including CPIML state secretary Sudhakar Yadav had to face arrests.
The unorganised workers' struggle for wage hike in Noida and other places was brutally crushed by the government. Many workers and activists are put in jail. NSA was invoked against journalist Satyam Verma and Akriti Chaudhary, a student of Delhi University. Though under the pressure of the agitation, the Yogi government was forced to increase the minimum wages of the workers. In the meantime students and youth are on streets agitating against paper leaks and other irregularities. In Allahabad, a major centre of competitive exams, students are sent to jails and repression is launched against coaching centres.
All sections of the people are agitating for their bread and butter issues, braving Yogi's bulldozer which is hell bent on suppressing all democratic aspirations. If the opposition succeeds in leading sustained mass struggles on issues that directly affect people's lives, such as unemployment, inflation, agrarian distress, education, and public services - it could alter the political balance in Uttar Pradesh and pose a serious challenge to the BJP in the 2027 Assembly elections.
